Doyle McManus: Will Clinton run? If she waits until 2015 to decide, the Democrats will pay a price

Los Angeles Times Published:

Hillary Rodham Clinton sure sounds like a woman who wants to run for president.

"If you really want to do something, if you believe you're the right person to do it, if you think that it could make a difference, then you have to be willing to compete, to get into the arena," she told an audience at Simmons College last week.

And women in their 60s aren't too old to be effective, she added. Far from it. At that age, "women are raring to go because they feel like they've fulfilled their responsibilities, their kids are now on their own, it's now time for them to show what they can do."

Plenty of Democrats hope Clinton heeds her own words. She holds a gigantic lead in early polls over Vice President Joe Biden, her closest potential competitor for their party's nomination. No fewer than four political action committees are already working on her behalf, raising money and collecting names of supporters. If she decides to run -- a decision she says she'll make later this year -- launching her campaign will be like turning a switch on a machine that's already built.

But what if Clinton decides not to run? Then her party has a problem: It needs to find another nominee, one who won't suffer in the eyes of voters by comparison to the one who got away.

Clinton says she hasn't made up her mind, and people who know her insist that she's telling the truth.

There's no shortage of other potential Democratic nominees. Biden, 71, remains widely popular among Democrats despite his gaffe-prone image. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren says she isn't running, but she has captured the hearts of progressives with her scorching denunciations of Wall Street. Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley and former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer say they might try for the nomination as well.

"She's Gladys Knight and all the rest of them are Pips," Democratic donor Robert Zimmerman told the Wall Street Journal recently.

But an early decision may not be in Clinton's personal interest, especially if her answer is yes. "The moment she decides to run, the whole tone and tenor of her media coverage will change -- for the worse," the strategist noted. Instead of her gauzy current role as a former secretary of State, inspirational speaker and grandmother-in-waiting, candidate Clinton would face demands to defend her record in office and say how she'd differ from Barack Obama.

The 2016 presidential election will probably be difficult for any Democratic nominee, including Clinton. After eight years of Obama, voters may be looking for a change in parties. Since World War II, a party has won the White House in three consecutive elections only once, when George H.W. Bush succeeded Ronald Reagan in 1988.

Clinton probably stands the strongest chance of beating that trend. She's popular among Democrats and independents, she's run for president before and she'd offer the allure of breaking a glass ceiling.

But first she has to decide. If she does plan to run, little will be lost from delaying the announcement until the end of the year. But if she opts not to run, she owes it to her party to make that decision sooner. Otherwise, she risks going down in history as a candidate who helped her party snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2016.

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ABOUT THE WRITER

Doyle McManus is a columnist for The Los Angeles Times. Readers may send him email at doyle.mcmanus@latimes.com

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©2014 Los Angeles Times

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ARCHIVE CARICATURE on MCT Direct (from MCT Faces in the News Library, 202-383-6064): Hillary Clinton

PHOTO of Doyle McManus is available from the Columnist Mugs section of MCT Direct.

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  • Will Clinton run? Oh Yes....!

    She will run from Whitewater scandal;

    She will run from Travelgate;

    She will run from Filegate;

    She will run from Chinagate;

    She will run from the Reset Button with Russia gate;

    She will run from Benghazigate;

    And she will run from Obamacare;

    But at this point "What Difference Does It Make"?

  • If obama doesn't declare himself permanent president, then hillary will win the presidency. If not, then the republican wing of the democratic party, jeb bush, will win. Any way you shake it...democrats stay in teh white house.